(0663) Incidence Trends of HPV-Associated Oropharyngeal p16+ Malignancy in Relation to Geographic Rates of HPV Vaccination

Introduction: Human papilloma virus (HPV) is the most commonly sexually transmitted infection in both the United States and around the world. It is now thought that HPV causes up to 70% of oropharyngeal cancers (OPC) in the United States. Although HPV vaccines are known to prevent strains of HPV that cause OPC, no formal studies have been conducted to determine if HPV vaccines have prevented OPC since their recommendation in 2006.

Methods: Data on HPV-mediated p16+ OPC incidence from 2018-2020 was obtained through the National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. Data on percent vaccination was collected from the National Cancer Institute State Cancer Profiles. Average incidence over the 3-year period was calculated on a state-by-state basis and then compared to the percent of the target population who had received 2+ doses of an HPV vaccine.

Results: States were divided into four regions based on guidelines from the United States Census Bureau: Northeast, Midwest, South, and West. The West had the lowest incidence of HPV-mediated OPC at 2.86%, followed by the South at 4.28%, the Midwest at 4.74%, and the Northeast at 5.44%. The vaccination rates of these regions were 60.38%, 59.35%, 62.75%, and 69.1%, respectively. Although the Northeast had the highest incidence of OPC, it also had the highest HPV vaccination rate, and was the only region that showed a decline in incidence from 2018-2020 (-0.37%). The three other regions showed a mild increase in incidence from 2018-2020, the West at 0.58%, South at 0.43%, and Midwest at 0.63%.

Conclusions: Since the HPV vaccine was recommended in 2006 to 12-26-year-olds, it is likely that we are only just now able to see the effects, if any, it has had on reduction of HPV-mediated OPC cancers. Since it was developed to prevent reproductive cancers, we must now rely on database studies to determine if there has been a reducing effect. Based on these preliminary results, further study and data analysis is warranted to determine if the HPV vaccine has been reducing cases of OPC across the United States.